There are essentially two ways to make decisions.
One is quick and adaptive. The other is slow and meticulous. Anything in between opens you up to second-guessing, self-doubt, and — worst of all — regret.
I am an advocate for making decisions both ways, and also for having the presence of mind to distinguish between the two in real time.
Warren Buffett
Warren Buffett is one of the richest five people alive. For a while he was the richest, but his position on this list keeps changing depending on how much of an orgasm the stock market is having over Microsoft, Tesla and Amazon at any given time.
Buffett is the oldest and most long-standing investor in the market — a fixture of American capitalism, and an “uncle” to many a young investor. His outlook on investing has always been meticulous and practical.
One of his most famous quotes is about limiting oneself to only the best and most obvious opportunities:
I could improve your ultimate financial welfare by giving you a ticket with only 20 slots in it, so that you had 20 punches — representing all the investments that you got to make in a lifetime. And once you’d punch through the card, you couldn’t make any more investments at all.
This might seem easy to grasp. And it’s seen as scripture among investors — particularly young investors. Young investors have a tragic combination of characteristics: they are deeply idealistic while also being completely unaware of their own capabilities and weaknesses. So they tout Warren’s advice like they understand it completely, all the while continuing to be too aggressive on bad opportunities. Too busy looking at stock charts, not busy enough reading financial statements.
It’s hard for any investor to follow this advice. Because what it means is that you must pass on 99% of your ideas. For every 20 good ideas you think you have, you’ll be lucky to have just one that’s actually worth committing to. That’s an extremely hard way to work, or live. It becomes discouraging to put hours, days, weeks, even months of work into research just for an idea to become a “no thanks.” It’s hard not to let that get to you. We are the biggest fans of our own ideas, and it becomes hard to let them flutter away after we have fallen deeply in love with them.
But that’s what he’s saying we must do. In order to invest in any company, Buffett believes that you essentially have to have a miracle opportunity. The rest must go in the “too expensive for now” pile or the “no thanks” pile.
And that reflects a great way to make any decision upon which your life really hinges. You do the research, you get all your thoughts straight, and you attack only once you’re as certain as you can possibly be that you’ve been diligent. This applies to things like getting married. Or moving somewhere. Or how to approach punishment and rewards with your children. The more you know, the better equipped you are to get on a good trajectory from your jumping-off point.
And then of course you continue to learn and make small changes to your trajectory and your practices. The point isn’t that you commit to something and then stick with it blindly — the point is that you make some of the most important decisions in your life with the attentiveness of a master craftsman. Or of Danny the Karate Kid going for that kick off of one leg. He waited until he knew the opportunity was as good as it was going to get, and then he went for the kick. Until then, he just stood there in pain.
It’s hard to know when the opportunity is precisely right. And there is risk and uncertainty in everything. But a healthy framework is to wait until it’s a “fuck yes.” If you do this, it’s morally unreasonable to feel regret or self-doubt. You made the best possible decision you could under the circumstances, and for that you should be proud of yourself. Not regretful. Life isn’t always fair, but your best defense against that is to control what you can control and minimize regret.
Hikaru Nakamura
And on the other hand, you have someone like Hikaru Nakamura. He is a young and world-renowned Grandmaster in chess. He is astoundingly good at slow, classical chess, but his specialty is speed chess. Particularly blitz competitions.
What makes Hikaru so extraordinary at his craft is a combination of two things:
He has put in the work to be able to recognize patterns and opportunities with super-human efficiency
He trusts himself completely when making decisions around these patterns and opportunities
It’s no accident that he outplays his opponents. And it’s also no accident that he regularly makes his opponents run out of time over the board. Why? Because he jumps on his opportunities faster. He trusts himself more. He weaponizes his instincts better than the competition.
Now, is this to say that Hikaru never makes mistakes? Of course not. He blunders away pieces like anyone else. Just not as often. And he plays more speed chess, so his sample size is larger. He gives himself more opportunities at greatness by engaging with his craft more. The slips don’t mean as much when you’re winning competitions all the god damn time.
And I find this very same worthiness in my own skills, instincts, and pattern recognitions in the real world. Not because I’m professional at anything. Quite frankly I’m not great at anything. I’m just good at a lot of things. It’s because I choose to find worthiness in my own skills and instincts. Simple as that. I choose to. I’d rather move quickly from small decision to small decision, attacking them as best I know how and moving on.
The cost is that I make mistakes. But the payoff is that my mind is serene and my plate is empty.
But “the secret of the pros” is: everyone makes mistakes anyway. Feeling self-doubt and laboring over simple everyday decisions isn’t going to change that. Losing sleep over what color to paint the bathroom wall doesn’t seem very reasonable. At best, you were right and your husband actually likes it. At worst, you have to unscrew the towel rack again and do a different color next weekend.
In the case of fast decisions, everyday decisions: trust your body and your mind to know a thing or two. Humans are brilliant creatures when we allow ourselves to be. You know more about life and opportunities than you think you do. Use that to your advantage.
The Quintessential Layman
So what we, the average person, can learn from Buffett and Nakamura is that there are two fundamental ways to make decisions. One is to commit only when it’s a “fuck yes,” and to do all of the prerequisite work to arrive at that conclusion beforehand. The other is to trust ourselves and be adaptive.
Make the small decisions as they come in. Zero your inbox. Not just your email, but your life. There is no freer mind than the one that tackles everything immediately.
And, really, even some of life’s biggest decisions can be made the fast way. You know that’s true.
And for the ones you’re unsure about, take as much time as you need. Be sure you’ve been careful. And be sure you’re ready to be the person who sees them through.
And in both cases, we continue to monitor our environment for new information and update our decisions and goals in real time. In both cases, we must be adaptive. Because to be adaptive is essential to living any decent life.
Try your hardest to leave no room in the middle. Where you wonder to yourself “could I have done more?” Or “Why didn’t I look at this obvious detail?” We will always miss obvious details, because we’re imperfect and distracted and biased. But the less room you leave in the middle, the more you buttress yourself against such torment. The more you defend against doubting yourself and feeling the wretched pain of uncertainty and regret.
And for more reading on human biases, thinking, and decision making, check out Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking, Fast and Slow.
Drink some water, quickly
JDR
“Nothing in life is as important as you think it is, while you are thinking about it.” - Daniel Kahneman